Global Warming
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This article is about global warming changes. General discussion about the Earth changes , see " climate change ."
From 1958 Molao carbon dioxide content in the island
Ambient gas cycle diagram
U.S. a petrochemical plant exhaust
Global warming (global warming) refers to the period of time , the Earth's atmosphere and oceans rise in temperature due to the greenhouse effect caused by the climate change phenomenon , as one tragedy of the commons , and the effects they have caused global warming is called of effect .
In the 20th century , the global average temperature of the atmosphere near the ground rose 0.74 degrees Celsius . In general , the scientific community over the past 50 years found that climate change can be observed velocity is doubled over the past 100 years , so the inference that period the climate change driven by human activity .
Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases content continues to increase. It is the human factor in global warming, the main part . According to information , the atmospheric nitrous oxide (N20) content than the mid-18th century ( AD 1750 ) the industrial revolution began from 275ppbv to 310ppbv, carbon dioxide (CO2) levels increased from 280ppmv 360ppmv, methane ( CH4) from 700ppbv to 1720ppbv, this growth trend is mainly due to human activities . The burning of fossil fuels, forest clearing and farming , and so have enhanced greenhouse effect. Since 1950 , changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity produced by warming effect than human emissions of greenhouse gases even lower . These conclusions were more than 30 countries from the Group of Eight research groups recognized .
Scientists at the University of California, Hawaii, Central Pacific Ocean established on Mauna Loa peak 4 7 meters high and a 27 -meter-high tower sampling , sampling four times per hour , analyze the changes in carbon dioxide . ( At right )
The current global average temperature, carbon dioxide concentration changes with temperature rise , in fact, there is no direct relationship , from the industrial revolution , carbon dioxide levels increased dramatically, although the plant photosynthesis absorbs a large part of carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean is also a part of carbon dioxide into calcium carbonate and fixed , but the content of carbon dioxide in the air is gradually increased. According to the American University of Virginia and the University of East Anglia joint research results in the latter half of the 20th century , global temperatures rising trend is very clear , the temperature changes shown below.
Global temperature increase to bring include rising sea levels and rainfall and snowfall in amount and style on the changes. These changes may induce stronger and more frequent extreme weather events , such as floods, droughts , heat waves , hurricanes and tornadoes. In addition, there are other consequences, including higher or lower agricultural yields, glacier retreat, reduced summer river flows , species extinction and rampant diseases . Events due to global warming is expected to cause the number and intensity ; these special events , but it is difficult to connect to the global warming. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for 50 years to 200 years of life , many studies focused on or before time 2100 . But whatever the causes of climate change, or the outcome, many people are very concerned about ; but also for the consequences of policies to meet predicted how to implement , causing a wide range of global political debate , public debate and a variety of academic research . These policy discussions focus should reduce or reverse future warming and how to meet the anticipated consequences.
Contents
A nomenclature
Nomenclature
In principle, the " global warming " the word on the cause of neutral point of view , but according to popular usage, " global warming " means that the human impact on the environment . Other organizations use the " anthropogenic climate change " (anthropogenic climate change) representative of the factors leading to change.
The history of global warming
Depending on the reorganization of the show in the past in 2000 , the average surface temperature . Every ten years to find an average. Special show 2004 the temperature reference.
According to the instrumental record , relative to the 1860-1900 period, the global land and ocean temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees Celsius . Since 1979 , land temperatures rise faster than twice as fast as ocean temperatures ( land temperature has increased by 0.25 degrees Celsius , while the ocean temperature has increased by 0.13 degrees Celsius ) . According to satellite temperature detection , tropospheric temperature 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade rise to 0.22 degrees . In 1850 twelve thousand years ago , although there have Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age , but the public believe that global temperatures are relatively stable .
According to the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration 's Goddard Institute for Space Studies research report estimated that since the 1800s there began measuring instrument widely used in 2005, the Earth has a temperature second warmest year since records began , more than 1998 annual average record low surface temperature of 0.06 degrees Celsius. World Meteorological Organization and the UK Climate Research Unit has a similar estimate was expected in 2005 is second only to 1998 second warmest year .
In the modern history of mankind have several temperature records. These records are from different places, accuracy and reliability are not the same. In 1860 global temperatures have similar instrumental record , I believe that when the records are rarely urban heat island effect . From the recent multi- year record millennium show the long-term outlook , the temperature for the past 1000 records can be seen in the discussions of the differences . The last 50 years, the process of climate change is very clear , thanks to detailed temperature records. By 1979 , humans have started to use satellite temperature measurements to measure the temperature of the troposphere .
In 2000 , the local high temperature records are often broken. For example : 11 August 2003 , the town of Logrono Rui Shige recorded 41.5 degrees Celsius , breaking the 139 years of records. In the same year , on August 10 , London, England the temperature reached 38.1 degrees Celsius , breaking the 1990 record. Meanwhile, south of Paris at night minimum temperature measured at 25.5 degrees Celsius , breaking the record since 1873 . August 7 at night , Germany also broke the centuries maximum temperature records. In the summer of 2003 , Taipei, Shanghai , Hangzhou, Wuhan, Fuzhou local high temperature records were broken , and more quickly , Zhejiang Province, China repeatedly breaking high temperatures recorded 67 weather stations in 40 to refresh records. July 2004 , Guangzhou rare high temperature broke the record of 53 years . July 2005 , the United States has two hundred cities have hit a historic high temperature records. August 16, 2006 , China Chongqing highest temperature up to 43 degrees . Yilan, Taiwan in July 8, 2006 temperatures up to 38.8 degrees , breaking the 1997 record. August 16, 2007 , Saitama, Japan Kumagaya temperatures up to 40.9 degrees , breaking the 1933 record of Yamagata, Japan .
Genesis
See also: Recent climate change causes and scientific views of climate change
Carbon dioxide levels over the past 40 years since the industrial revolution and the rapid surge ; cyclical changes in the Earth's orbit ( also known as Milankovitch cycles ) is believed to be one hundred thousand years behind the ice age cycle promoters .
Changes in the climate system from natural or internal operations and external changes to the power response . These external forces include the human and non-human factors, such as solar activity , volcanic activity and greenhouse gases. More than climatologists agree that the earth has been warming in recent years . Modern causes of climate change is still active research areas , but the scientific consensus that the greenhouse gases are the main cause of global warming . However, outside of the scientific community is still disputed this conclusion .
In the Earth's atmosphere of carbon dioxide and methane emissions , while other things equal , will lead to the ground warming, greenhouse gases natural greenhouse effect. Without it, the Earth's temperature will be 30 degrees Celsius lower than it is now , the planet is not fit for human habitation . Therefore, in the supporting and opposing arguments between this warming theory is incorrect , but should focus on the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and methane content increases arising from the final results, what time or what should be promoted when it agreed to make ease .
For an example of an important feedback process is ice- albedo feedback. Increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere warming the Earth's surface , causing polar ice caps to dissolve. Land and open water to occupy more places . Both even less reflective than ice , so absorb more solar radiation . This makes warming intensifies, the end result in more ice melts , circulating constantly sustained .
Because the earth's thermal inertia and other indirect effects on the slow response of the Earth's climate in today's ever-increasing greenhouse gases under become unbalanced . Climate behavioral studies indicate that even maintain current levels of greenhouse gases , the global average temperature rise may still be 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius .
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
In the past 65 years , atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature charts
1980 to 2003 , the world's major greenhouse gas trends
Fuels emissions from comparison
Greenhouse gases shortwave radiation of the sun is transparent. However, they are absorbed from the earth has issued ( blackbody radiation ) part of the long-wave infrared radiation. This makes difficult to cool the planet . They can be based on how much warming the Earth as an indicator of global warming potential .
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane since 1750 than pre-industrial levels ( 280 ppm ) were increased by 31% and 149% . And now the level has been higher than 380 parts per million . Ice cores extracted from reliable data that in the past 65 million years for comparison , this is a significant surge . From some non- direct geological evidence , reason to believe that carbon dioxide levels over the past 4000 years is relatively high . In the past 20 years , about three-quarters of all man-made carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. Other anthropogenic emissions are land use, especially deforestation .
Big Island of Hawaii in 1958, about 3,400 meters above sea level Mauna Loa on the mixing ratio of carbon dioxide launched the longest continuous measurement instrument . From then on, it was found that the measurement results annually rising as Keeling curve (Keeling Curve) shows that the value from the original 315 ppm up to 2006 more than 380 parts per million , an increase of about 21%. showed that carbon dioxide levels in the month mild seasonal changes throughout the year as a whole is on the rise.
Methane is the main component of natural gas , most of the biological production and from natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure leak out. Some methane is natural biological sources , such as termites. But other sources are caused by human -driven increase in agricultural activities , such as rice farming. Recent evidence shows that the forest may be a source of methane . If true, this would be an additional contribution to the natural greenhouse effect , rather than man-made greenhouse effect .
Although the actual trajectory depends on the trend of uncertain economic , social , technological and natural development , expected future level of carbon dioxide because of the use of fossil fuels will continue to rise . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , " a special report emissions " of carbon dioxide set out the many different circumstances in 2100 can be achieved by the 541-970 ppm level. If the coal and tar are widely adopted , the existing reserves of fossil fuels is the ability to achieve this level in 2100 and continued after discharge .
In 2000 anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases of the various components
Major global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fuels. Most of the rest comes from " short fuels" ( production and delivery of fuel consumed ) , industrial and agricultural body increased. Production emissions. In 1990 , their proportion was 5.8% , 5.2 % and 3.3% . The current data are available for comparison. About 17 % of the fuel consumed by power generation . Few from nature and man-made biological sources , only about 6.3% of methane generated from agriculture and nitrous oxide .
Positive feedback effect will lead to more sources of greenhouse gases . For example, from the Siberian permafrost peat bog in the release of methane may be as many as 7 million tons. Note that human emissions of pollutants such as sulphate aerosols have a cooling effect . Although disturbed the natural cycle of the mid- twentieth century may result seen in the plateau temperature record , but those human emissions of pollutants in a certain extent, also lead to similar temperature record
Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration studies
By discussing the existing 60 years ( 1948 to 2008 ) of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration data (From reports of Pieter Tans. Etal) the distribution , using trend analysis , given the specific trends in equation form . And ice core analysis or observational data comparison results show that the equation of the curve trend in line with the existing data , and then from 2010 to 2016 are given between atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted value (389 ~ 402ppmv), and thus the concentration of CO2 and climate change relationship to be a preliminary study .
Without the greenhouse effect, people can not survive. Just make greenhouse gas carbon dioxide increases .
Other theories
Mankind has attempted to measure concerning "Over the past 50 years, the majority of observed warming is caused by human activity ," the degree of scientific consensus . in the journal Science , the University of California, San Diego history professor Naomi · Ole Velazquez secret information from the scientific institutions in 928 parts of the scientific literature to find a summary of global climate change (global climate change). He concluded , express or implied, of which 75% accepted this view of public opinion . However, Professor Ole Velazquez indicated in the summary did not say how many human-induced warming effect .
In addition to this public opinion , there are other hypotheses to try to explain all or part of the causes of the rise in global temperatures . Some hypotheses are as follows:
Global temperatures is still a natural temperature variation range.
Global temperatures is a small ice age to come.
The reason is that the global temperature changes in solar radiation and cloud cover moderating effect .
Global temperature rise is a reflection of urban heat island effect . Because many readings are in densely populated areas or are expanding .
Solar variation theory
Over the past 30 years, changes in solar radiation map
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report elaborated model of the last 40 to 50 years found that climate change does not require changes in solar luminosity . These findings volcanic and solar activity can affect only 1,950 years ago, half the temperature changes , but this has recently been offset by the forces of nature . In particular, since the 1750 greenhouse gas driven climate change over the same period increased solar activity driven eight times higher .
Some studies (Lean et al , 2002 ; Wang et al , 2005 ) that the pre-industrial era solar luminosity than the third assessment report referred to in the recovery record ( for example : Hoyt and Schatten, 1993年; Lean, 2000 ) is also three to four times less . Other researchers believe that the sun luminosity effects on global warming has been underestimated. They estimate that solar activity has recently prompted 16% of the greenhouse effect , or 36%. Others it is recommended that clouds and other feedback processes exacerbated by changes in solar activity impact . If that is true , changes in solar activity really been underestimated. From the general scientific understanding, solar luminosity changes on historical contribution to climate change is very small .
Now the level of solar activity is historically high . Scientist Sami Suolan Ji (Sami Solanki) Dr. think the last 60 years to 70 years, solar activity is eight thousand years of the peak. Muscheler and others that have occurred over the past few years are similar to the peak period . Solanki Dr decided on the basis of their analysis of solar activity in the next 50 years will reduce the chance rate is about 92%. Furthermore, researchers at Duke University in 2005 found that over the past two decades of change in the 10 to 30 percent may come from the increased output of the sun . reviewed the existing literature , Foukal et al concluded that since the mid-1970s, changes in solar output is difficult to exacerbate global warming and there is no evidence to suggest that the luminosity of the sun during this period increased.
Vegetation, forest resources and global warming relations
Global forest resources are effective tools for preventing global warming . Through photosynthesis, trees absorb carbon dioxide in air to produce oxygen and sugar . When humans are part of forest destruction will be used as a fuel for heating or firing into a wood . In the use of the combustion process produces carbon dioxide , increasing the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere , further aggravating the greenhouse effect, accelerating global warming . Thus, on the one hand reduce the absorption of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas quantity , on the other hand will increase carbon dioxide emissions. So break or unreasonable use of forest resources, resources are severely damaged the environment , global warming is a major incentive . a large area of grassland and vegetation to absorb carbon dioxide and also has the function of groundwater conservation , grassland and vegetation severely damaged areas will also cause severe sandstorms, accelerating desertification of grassland and vegetation .
Moral , social and political controversies
See also: Global warming controversy
Over the past few years, public awareness of global warming and the degree of attention improved significantly. people to the cause of global warming and the scientific explanation of attention , but caused a political and economic debate. Although poor areas , especially in Africa is very small emissions , but face significant risks arising from global warming . Meanwhile, the U.S. dissatisfaction with developing countries to relieve the constraints of the Kyoto Protocol , and use this as a reason to refuse to sign the agreement . In Western society, compared to the U.S. , Europe has a lot of people to accept the human influence on climate warming and efforts to fight these allegations .
Organizations and companies such as fossil fuels by Philip Cooney (Philip Cooney) , and some think tanks - Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute, represented by the American Petroleum Institute and Exxon Mobil to use some exercise to dilute the risks of global warming . Environmental groups and public figures , it held campaign to emphasize the risk of them . Recently, some companies have reduced fossil fuel desalination movement , and even called for a policy to avoid global warming .
Restrictions on this issue spurs industrial greenhouse gas emissions impact on economic activity debate . In the United States , and reports of the scientific evidence for political manipulation has become an important issue. Other states will most likely discuss the reduction to be taken when other more clean energy cost required .
Others focus of debate lies in some of the newly industrialized countries such as India and China in efforts to curb emissions should be how much. 2007 , China 's carbon dioxide emissions have overtaken the United States , China argues that because China's per capita emissions are one-third of the United States ( 2010 ) , so there is no great responsibility in reducing emissions . United States argued that if they bear the necessary abatement costs , China also . India will soon become one of the big industrial emissions will be the same with China facing the same problem .
Impact
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Main article: Effects of global warming
By the effects of global warming , in the Swiss Alps, the Aletsch glacier is constantly Back
One thousand years the Northern Hemisphere temperature trends ( 1000 - 1950 degrees per minute 50 years per decade 1950-2000 moment degrees )
As ocean temperatures , sea water volume expansion , the Antarctic and Greenland continental glacier melt will accelerate , leading to rising sea levels will submerge low-lying coastal areas, such as Oceania islands Tuvalu have been flooded . Worldwide there are 3 /4 of the population live in less than 500 km from the coast where the land area is reduced greatly affect human living environment , and may even lead to war . River seawall establishment , can reduce the impact of rising sea levels and protect low-lying areas . ( Note that the widely circulated " floating on the oceans and melting of glaciers and sea level rise " argument is wrong. According to Archimedes' principle , in fact , melting glaciers floating on the ocean sea levels will remain after unchanged only when the land into the ocean after melting glaciers will change sea level )
As ocean temperatures , water evaporates faster, a lot of water vapor is transported into the atmosphere will lead to a sudden increase in rainfall in some areas within a short time , so that heavy rain will cause flooding, landslides, mudslides and other more frequent occurrence in the city is located along the river and the river downstream of the vast region therefore subject to flooding , flood area because of short-term and rapid expansion of heavy precipitation , soil erosion problems are more severe than in the past .
As atmospheric temperature, resulting in proliferation of tropical infectious diseases to high latitudes , there are already signs of the spread of tropical diseases . In the past, at low temperatures, the virus is difficult to survive winter temperatures rise as there may be activities throughout the year , the most recent monitoring found that in the past has been the control of diseases such as tuberculosis , which are likely to break out again .
As atmospheric temperature increases, so evaporation rise in the previous drought areas face a more severe test without proper farming methods is likely to allow previously vegetated semi-arid areas unprotected become semi-desert region , which resulted in the accelerated desertification land areas , deserts expand danger ( in fact desertification problem has plagued East and Central Asian countries , in the Sahara border region is worrying situation ) .
As temperature increases, if the top of the food chain in the upper layer and the corresponding changes in biological if it will not make a serious crisis to breeding populations and development of the entire biological diversity will be threatened, many species will accelerate the pace of extinction .
As polar ice collapses , Scandinavia, South America, near-polar where the temperature will drop rapidly ( due to ice melt has melted latent heat , a lot of ice also melts will absorb a lot of energy for melting , and therefore the near-polar where the temperature will drop rapidly ) , will seriously affect the local ecosystem , causing irreversible changes.
Australia epidemiologist Antonio McMichael (Anthony McMichael) in the American Society for Microbiology 's meeting warned that global warming makes a variety of epidemic outbreak of epidemic mode change to increase opportunities .
Due to extreme weather causes crop failure , reduced food supplies in some areas causing serious economic losses, and even lead to famine , such as droughts cause desertification in Africa, to expand the scope of agricultural land decreased productivity .
Other views on global warming
(※ The views are independent )
In fact , the Earth 4.6 billion years ago, continue to experience the cold of global warming , sea level rise and fall, when carbon dioxide levels are high and sometimes low , and some times even much higher than the current level , not fixed . Since the air temperature, sea level , carbon dioxide levels are constantly changing, and the most recent decades temperature , sea level and changes in the level of carbon dioxide in the natural range of variation completely . Now " prevent global warming " in trying to make the Earth's temperature behavior to maintain a certain violation of the laws of nature .
" Average temperature " , the temperature should be what age is ambiguous as standard , not to mention billions of years of Earth's history, nearly two thousand years of human history , there have been Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age both average temperature extreme opposite situation , in the absence of criteria for determining what temperature is considered unreasonable to talk about preventing global warming .
Sea level in the tens of thousands of years has been on the rise , with little human activity . Initially, Asia and the Americas , Japan, Taiwan and the Asian continent , the United Kingdom and continental Europe are linked together , and later was only separated from sea level rise , so will sea level rise is mainly attributable to human inappropriate, is the lack of scientific knowledge embodied .
" Carbon " and " prevent global warming " and other slogans actually become political show, signed the " Kyoto Protocol" countries do not actively saving, and even increased . ( See the relevant chapter Kyoto Protocol ) make people suspect it is the politicians in order to scare up votes means.
Some countries in order to " prevent global warming " as the name of levying various taxes , increasing national burden , so that the original line of the population living in poverty is more poverty. These countries do not focus on improving technology to reduce carbon emissions but seeking only to collect taxes , attracting people's criticism. So that people suspected " global warming " is a multi- government to collect taxes from the people who deliberately exaggerated.
Business benefits: Many businesses put " low carbon " as a propaganda tool , and low-carbon products are often more expensive than other products , if forced to give up ordinary products and switched to a low-carbon products will increase the burden on the poor is immoral .
Some claimed to be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions approach , in fact it will increase greenhouse gas emissions , such as biofuels ; while the effect of planting is suspected because of this process and the plant itself greenhouse gas emissions may be higher than it could be effective in reducing more greenhouse gas emissions .
According to chemical principles , " lights a candle " actually emit more carbon . Therefore, the "Earth Hour " lights a candle in fact, many people with their carbon reduction claims contrary , show more ingredients .
So that those who died in the cold wave to reduce global warming , said to refer to the heat wave killed more people than cold . Some people think that global warming makes the high latitudes in summer hotter , colder winter climate extremes often occur . But in fact , the occurrence of cold wave is just proof of global warming the earth did not happen . Moreover, warming , cooling blame global warming is clearly an unscientific irrational , contrary to the scientific principle of falsifiability .
2013 Arctic summer cover area than in 2012 increased by 60 % over one million square miles. Scientists warned that the world is experiencing rapid decline in temperature , may face global cooling . Temperatures will continue to drop rapidly after the middle of this century . According to the computer before this catastrophic climate warming is predicted dangerously misleading
